Carbon Reduction Policies: A Regional Comparison of Their Contributions to CO2 Abatement in Six Carbon Trading Pilot Schemes in China

The contributions of carbon reduction policies were evaluated and compared for six carbon trading pilot schemes in China, in four municipalities(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) and two provinces(Guangdong and Hubei). The carbon emissions accounting method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to calculate the actual CO2 and the support vector machine model was used to predict CO2. Chinese carbon reduction policies abated CO2 in the six carbon trading pilot schemes after the comprehensive policies came into force. However, the contribution of policies to CO2 abatement varied among regions, and the effect of carbon reduction policy on municipality pilot schemes was greater than on provincial pilot schemes. The largest contribution of carbon reduction policy to CO2 abatement was 28.3%, for the pilot carbon trading scheme in Beijing, and the smallest contribution was 3.7%, for that in Hubei. It is crucial to consider “carbon leakage” and a carbon trading linking program in order to evaluate the effects of carbon reduction policies.     

Management of wildfires with a geographical information system

Abstract

Wildfires pose a constant threat to natural resources, endangered species, human property and even human lives. Effective management of wildfires requires a thorough understanding of the environmental and human related factors that are important to wildfires, as well as the complex spatial relationships among them. A geographical information system was used to analyse the data of the Idyllwild 7-5-minute quadrangle in southern California, U.S.A. A probability model which incorporated topography, vegetation, temperature, precipitation, proximity to buildings and proximity to transportation was constructed to generate the distribution of the probability of fire occurrence. Critical zones of danger from fire which need suppression were delineated. Two hypothetical spatial strategies of prescribed burning were evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in reducing the danger to the district from fire and producing a more desirable spatial pattern.     

基于交通振动环境下建筑结构损伤机理及减振隔振的研究现状

随着交通建设的发展,越来越多的公路要临近已有建筑物通过,而由于建设或重车通行引起的振动对周边建筑结构产生了很大的安全威胁,严重的甚至造成了建筑结构的损坏。论文通过对交通振动下建筑结构的振动控制标准和在振动中的损伤机理进行综述,系统总结了交通振动对建筑影响的方法,介绍了目前交通振动对建筑结构安全性影响的研究现状和方法,分析了减振隔振的发展现状,创新性的提出将疲劳寿命作为建筑结构振动容许值的参考依据。在总结分析现状的情况下提出目前存在的问题,给出了相关的意见和建议,可为今后的相关研究提供参考。     

Uncertainty of the numerical solution of a nonlinear system’s long-term behavior and global convergence of the numerical pattern

The computational uncertainty principle in nonlinear ordinary differential equations makes the numerical solution of the long-term behavior of nonlinear atmospheric equations have no meaning. The main reason is that, in the error analysis theory of present-day computational mathematics, the non-linear process between truncation error and rounding erroris treated as a linear operation. In this paper, based on the operator equations of large-scale atmospheric movement, the above limitation is overcome by using the notion of cell mapping. Through studying the global asymptotic characteristics of the numerical pattern of the large-scale atmospheric equations, the definitions of the global convergence and an appropriate discrete algorithm of the numerical pattern are put forward. Three determinant theorems about the global convergence of the numerical pattern are presented, which provide the theoretical basis for constructing the globally convergent numerical pattern. Further, it is pointed out that only a globally convergent numerical pattern can improve the veracity of climatic prediction.     

短期气候预测的现状 问题与出路(二)

从方法论上分析了短期气候预测的现状、问题与出路。着重指出：基础理论研究的欠缺又不甚得法是短期气候预测准确率提高缓慢的原因；应当将数值预报的提法从初值问题改为演变问题，进一步提为反问题；统计学方法与动力学方法要相互借鉴，取长补短，融合发展。     

天文古气候理论及其进展—从米兰柯维奇到贝尔杰

扼要介绍了天文古气候学的创立和发展简史。太阳是地球大气运动的第一驱动力，地球气候的长期演变在很大程度上受到入射太阳辐射变化的影响。入射太阳辐的变化主要和三个地球轨道参数有关，即地球绕太阳运行的椭圆轨道偏心率，地球自转轴倾角及岁差。太阳辐射的长期振荡主要集中在与这三个参数有关的频率上，这些频率通常被称为米兰柯维奇频率，数值模拟和地学记录都证实地质时间尺度的古气候的演化大多位于米兰柯维奇频率带上。     

影响广东省的热带气旋特征分析及灾害损失研究

本文基于1990~2015年影响广东省的热带气旋（Tropical cyclone,TC）数据,分析了影响广东省TC的时空特征、灾情年际变化以及灾害强度特征等。并利用灾害指标核算出灾害损失的经济价值,改进综合灾情指数模型。主要得出以下结论:26年来登陆广东省的TC共93个（占登陆我国TC总数的29.6%）,其中有67个对广东省造成了人员伤亡或者经济损失;影响广东省TC频次整体随时间变化不大,强度低的TC频次随年际呈现较为明显地减少变化趋势,而强度高的TC频次呈现较为明显的逐年上升趋势;粤西与珠江三角洲地区受TC侵袭频次明显高于粤东和粤北地区;热带气旋各项灾情指标造成的经济损失（以2015年为可比价）均在1997年出现转折,经济损失急速下滑;各项损失相对值与TC强度之间存在较好的指数正相关关系,低强度等级的热带气旋造成的综合灾情指数呈现较为明显的年际减小趋势,而高强度等级的热带气旋变化趋势不显著。     

Analysis of Responses of Floating Dual Pontoon Structure

A numerical model is developed by use of the boundary integral equation method to investigate the responses of a two-dimensional floating structure.The structure under consideration consisting of two pontoons,is connected by a rigid framework,and linked to the sea floor by a mooring system.The theoretical conception is based on potential theory with linear external forces,and applied to an arbitrarily shaped body and water depth.The discussion includes the influence of draft and space between pontoons on the responses of the floating structure.Finally,the validity of the method is adequately verified by experimental results.     

分子遗传标记技术在海岸带生物入侵鉴别中的应用

外来生物的引进或入侵会给本土种造成遗传污染.综述分子遗传标记技术SSR和AFLP应用于海洋和河口环境中,有效地监测无脊椎动物由于外来入侵或引种所造成的遗传学影响的研究进展.指出建立一套快速、准确、有效的分子遗传标记技术,对于追踪入侵种的来源,预测入侵可能带来的后果,保护我国的海岸带环境无脊椎动物的物种多样性,减少入侵种带来的危害具有重要的意义.